No matter what the groundhog says, it’s going to be a long winter

The area saw record lows early in the week with temperatures dropping as a low as minus-27 on Jan. 24. Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips notes four days this season have been lower than the coldest temperature recorded last year. “The coldest all last year was minus-19.6 degrees

Last updated on May 04, 23

Posted on Jan 28, 11

2 min read

The area saw record lows early in the week with temperatures dropping as a low as minus-27 on Jan. 24.

Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips notes four days this season have been lower than the coldest temperature recorded last year.

“The coldest all last year was minus-19.6 degrees,” he said. “These are brutally cold temperatures. These are some of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen in years.’

An arctic wind from the north caused the thermostat to dip lower than it has since 2006.

“What we had is an Alberta clipper, and it tends to bring us this up and down kind of yo-yo weather. When it came through last week it brought a bit of a snow and when it left it allowed the cold air to rush down.”

Phillips calls ‘scary’ temperatures that felt like minus-35 degrees with the windchill, saying exposed skin would freeze in less than 10 minutes.

The weather bounced back at the end of the week, with balmy highs of minus-three, but Phillips said the warmer temperatures may not stay and colder days should be expected again before winter ends.

Winter is close to half over according to the calendar, with Groundhog Day next week on Feb. 2 to mark the occasion. Phillips said Wiarton Willie may not see his shadow due to cloud cover, but unfortunately for the critter, he should, sending him scurrying back into his hole because there is a lot of winter yet to come.

“Because there is so much cloud and lake effects snow, there is an 80 per cent chance that he won’t see his shadow, so the dice are loaded for him to say winter is over and spring is just around the corner,” Phillips joked, noting the groundhog has received death threats over the years when his predictions have fallen short of reality.

Phillips predicts winter weather will continue past the end of March.

“We’ve seen our shadow and it says February and March are going to be colder than normal,” he said. “Spring is not going to arrive as early as last year. The winter is going to feel a little longer.”

Phillips remains optimistic, however, with a reminder that statistically each day from now until April will be warmer than the last, excepting a few bouts of cold temperatures. Despite constant flurries, he reminds residents Waterloo
Region has not seen large snowstorms brought by American systems this year. Areas like London and Sarnia have not been as lucky.

Phillips said temperatures in one season are not necessarily indicative of temperatures in the next, so a colder-than-normal winter will not mean a cold spring and summer.

“You can’t speculate from what a winter gives. Nature doesn’t balance things along, it just does what it wants to do and we try to figure it out.”

Phillips said it is too early for climatologists to predict the summer weather, but he knows it will be a while yet in coming.

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