Winter doesn’t officially arrive until next week, but we’ve already had a taste of the season. And a taste of the mixed bag that’s likely in store for the months ahead.
November temperatures ranged from 2.5 to 3 degrees warmer than normal while also giving us a range of different conditions, including snow. The white stuff greeted December, but the weather then became milder and rainier. More of the same awaits us, predicts David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
“My sense is that what we see is a slow beginning to winter – it’s not as if it’s paid attention to the month of December and delivered it, even though astronomically we know it doesn’t arrive until the 21st. We know that winter weather can usually arrive in November, and November was warmer than normal. I think right away we know that winter seems likely to be shorter this year, at least to the front end. Typically we can sometimes count November in the winter column, and we can’t this year. December is starting out to be not really Arctic-like, but more kind of in between, and I think what we’ve seen so far is the winter we’re going to get,” he said.
“Sometimes the dress rehearsal weather is kind of the pattern that we see. December, we [are] calling for it to be milder than normal and perhaps maybe wetter than normal. And then we go beyond our forecast for December [to] January, [and] February, the same thing warmer and wetter than normal,” said Phillips.
He says wetter than normal will bring more moisture, but does not know if that means rain or snow. The expectation is that the weather we will see is almost going to be a dual personality, with Arctic air and warmer conditions battling it out.
“We’re going to have winter, but it’s going to be quite fickle and fitful – quite unsettled, wild swings in temperature. We’re going to have Arctic air some time thinking ‘oh my gosh, I wish I was somewhere else,’ and all of a sudden you’re going to get protracted melting going on, and [then see temperatures] falling and then back into the freezing again. So it’s not going to be one character – it’s almost like a dual personality or multi personality. There’s going to be those moments, but they’re not going to be long-lasting, so you know you can’t plan on a Monday to do something on Thursday based … on the weather, because you know it’s going to be quite changing.”
He says the milder temperatures could bring with it the risk of freezing rain. As usual, this area does run the risk of experiencing lake effect snow.
Despite the winter conditions not always bringing us the frigid weather our elders used to get, Phillips says if he was going to make a bet, he would predict we will see a white Christmas in the area.
“Based on what I see in the next two weeks, I would say you will have a white Christmas… I think you’re going to see a warm-up which will take away all the white (snow) that you’ve got – you’ll be starting afresh. But, by the middle of the month, things will have cooled off. And so any precipitation you get will be the white. It’s just what’s going to happen the week before Christmas, and right now it looks like it’s below normal. It could warm up, but… if I was betting, and only a loonie or two, I would say, ‘hey, I think you’re going to have one,’” he added.
